In this three-part series, I ask whether African leaders are looking to the Chinese and Indian experiences of development as models for their own countries.  In this section, I introduce the topic, which is also the basis for my doctoral dissertation.  Next week, I’ll look at the similarities and differences in how China and India have developed.  The final section will address some common  concerns and questions before closing off with a couple of tentative conclusions. 

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The world’s fascination with China shows no signs of abating.  Expo 2010, which opened last week in Shanghai, has been accompanied by the usual outpourings of admiration for China’s leadership.  Events such as these are widely viewed as opportunities for China to showcase the developmental strides it has made in recent decades—and the success of what is increasingly being referred to as the “Chinese Model” or even the “Beijing Consensus”. 

But China is not the only country to have achieved spectacular economic growth in the midst of a global recession.  With an average annual growth rate of over 7% since 1997, India has been snapping at China’s heels.  In fact, many analysts expect India to overtake China’s rate by 2018.  Increasingly, therefore, the “India Model” is also beginning to make its way into the headlines. 

One fact seems clear:  the world’s two most populous countries are undergoing unprecedented changes that could forever alter the way the world thinks about development.  Because “success stories” have a way of inspiring others, other developing countries are beginning to ask what lessons they can learn from the Chinese and Indian experiences. 

This is particularly true of Africa, home to the largest group of developing countries in the world and greatly disillusioned with the prescriptions of Western donors.  Take, for example, the quote by Tanzanian President Jakaya Kikwete, that “China and India give Africa the hope that it is possible to transform our nations from abject poverty to higher levels of development”.  Or the view of NEPAD’s chief executive that “India and China serve as models for Africa because their experiences hold lessons for developing countries on how to manage gradual economic and political transformation”.

If indeed African countries are trying to learn from either—or both—of these giants, this raises a host of questions:  how do African leaders interpret the Chinese and Indian experiences, and exactly which lessons do they want to learn?  Are all African countries equally likely to emulate outside models?  Is copying these models even a good idea, or should African countries be focusing only on their own experiences?  What are the motives behind leaders’ choice of model, and what implications will these choices have for development in Africa?  These are not easy to answer, and I won’t be able to do so fully—but I’ll use the next two posts to at least explore some of these issues. 

We have been here before:  the “Soviet Model” was popular in Africa and China for decades, Japan’s growth in the 1960’s and 1970’s triggered debates on the “Japanese Model”, and the Rise of the “Asian Tigers” in the 1980’s led to speculation over the “East Asian Model”.  Each of these has changed the international landscape and contributed to the “Battle of Ideas” that lies at the heart of developmental debates.  Is it the turn of the Chinese model, the Indian model, or both?