“The world has become less peaceful over the last year.” The Guardian, 8 June 2010.
Bad news for peace.
In the words of Vision of Humanity, “In the 21st century peace is the pre-requisite for the survival of humanity as we know it. No longer viewed in the domain of the altruistic, it is in everyone’s fundamental best interest.”
Bad news for all of us.
Peace? What peace?
The Global Peace Index (GPI) was released this week by the Institute for Economics and Peace. It shows that New Zealand/Aotearoa is the most peaceful place on Earth, with Iraq at the other end of the list. In total, 149 countries are listed in the annual GPI.
It’s not just overt wars that indicate that peace has gone on holiday for a while.
There are 23 Peace Indicators, such as the number of homicides, violent demonstrations, jailed population, deaths from internal and external conflicts, weapons imports and exports, number of displaced people, and military expenditure. Countries are ranked from 1 to 5, where 1 is the most peaceful and 5 is, well, bad.
Some countries made some progress in certain areas, but others have slipped down the list because of increasing human rights abuses and violent crime. The overall situation has decreased. Have a look.
Money money money
Violence is expensive. And yet, we still believe we can afford it.
According to The Guardian, “The index authors estimate that the total economic impact of an end to violence could have been US$28.2 trillion between 2006 and 2009. A 25% reduction in global violence would add an annual $1.85 trillion to the global economy. Killelea [Steve Killelea, founder of the GPI] said these amounts could pay off Greece’s debts, meet the yearly requirements needed to hit the Millennium Development Goals and pay for the EU’s carbon reduction programme, and still leave change.”
Pay for the mess and still have some change left? The white dove with the olive branch would really sing and dance in the sky.
Here are the Who's Who of the world singing, not in the sky though:
Video: Vision of Humanity
Photo: smile4camera via flickr
Cool video
the map is great - nice flash. it’s strange to see Austria on the 4 place as the only really dangerous incident in my life happened in Vienna underground where one teenager pointed gun at me… hmmm we all have our own peace - map. My beloved Georgia is on the 142/149 place… where I met with so open-hearted people and friends.
Interesting link Giedre! So after New Zealand we have Iceland in 2nd place and Japan in 3rd! Im surprised about Canada, I thought it would make the top 10. Oh well, sad to see where Mexico is
Funny: couple of weeks ago I was thinking of writing a post claiming that the world is more peaceful, despite conventional perception driven by media reports focused on conflicts. In fact since the end of the cold war the number of armed conflicts has decreased by more than 40%, and the number of major conflicts has declined by 80%. Interestingly, interstate wars now comprise only 5% of all armed conflicts. However in the last decade the trend has been reversed: 39 different conflicts became active.
Now, going back to Global Peace Index - I like the Country Comparison tool and the map, but their methodology convince me in a limited way. Look: Poland got 2.5 / 5 mark in a category “Number of external and internal conflict fought” - I understand the reason is Afghanistan. But what on earth means “3” mark (5 is the worse) in “Relations with neighboring countries”?
I am not convinced that “a 25% reduction in global violence would add an annual $1.85 trillion to the global economy” either. Wars are costly and inflate global GDP - enough to look at US economy at the time of 2nd world war. Of course this is good for arms manufacturers (especially US and Russia), while poor nations waging wars bear the burden.
Thank you both for reading!
@Iwona, I like your “We all have our own peace map”. We really do. I guess it depends on one’s personal experience in a certain place. The GPI looks more at the state performance which might or might not coincide with individual performance. Eg, the UK is doing not bad - 31/149, but I haven’t felt as unsafe anywhere else as I feel here.
@Andrea, don’t you find it interesting how Central and North America differ in colours? Also, one of the Peace Indicators is the relationship between neighbouring countries. Mexico’s anti-peace activities are very much connected with the drug cartels and murders, is that correct?
Hey Robert, thanks for your comment.
The GPI admits there are less conflicts now, but they say the situation has worsened in other areas, such as homicide rates. That’s why in overall, they claim the world is less peaceful. What I like about their research method is that they take into account all these other factors, what they call the Peace Indicators. Take prison population. California, for example, spends more money on its prisons than on education. 1 in every 3 African Americans in CA is either in prison or on parole, and the vicious circle of crime-imprisonment-crime-imprisonment rolls and rolls. This is not peace as in war v. peace, but it adds a huge amount to the whole situation of safety.
As for Poland, I guess you have to look at the full report to see why they gave it a 3 in relations with neighbours. Do they mean Kaliningrad (Russia basically) by any chance?
I agree with you on the impact of WW2. Wars are also good for other reasons (remember Bart’s last post?). But the authors of the GPI are not naive and they don’t expect everybody to just drop their guns at this very moment and invest in education and preservation of endangered species or any other good cause.
They put it this way: “Report does not argue that it is feasible to eliminate violence, nor that military forces and violence-related law and order functions are or will become unnecessary; it does argue that societies have choices between spending money on conflict-transformation, for example, as opposed to locking up people for individual or collective violent behavior.” http://www.visionofhumanity.org/info-center/vision-of-humanity-themes/economics-and-peace/defining-peace-industries-and-calculating-the-potential-size-of-a-peace-gross-world-product-by-country-and-by-economic-sector/
I see this trillion $s comparison of “we’d reach MDGs and have change left if we got rid of violence” as a call for understanding that it is too expensive to continue the way we are doing now. I don’t think we are in a position yet to reduce global violence by 25%, given all the material and political interests of the powerful involved. But anyways, if you think about it, wouldn’t that be great?
Like Robert, I’m not convinced that a “25% reduction in global violence would add an annual $1.85 trillion to the global economy”, but I think we should aim for it and see.
Peace on earth is our ultimate goal.
I think more appropriate term for GPI would be “Global Violence Index”.
For the folks interested of this topic, there is another new report by Center for International Development and Conflict Management: http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/pc/
Sure, would be great to redirect the money spent on wars to MDGs. I don’t want to speculate on ability or inability of decreasing violence by any percentage, what I meant was that for the global economy statistics - and its most silly tool: GDP - wars are good.
As far as I can see, GPI report does not elaborate about the scores for each country, so it’s hard to get why they don’t like Poland’s relations with the neighbors. They might have meant the quarrel with Russia about US anti-missile defense, but this is already gone; our relations are always little bit tense, but peaceful.
And speaking of the neighbors: I am going to your home country on Monday!
Yeah if they put it that way (GVI), that’d be kinda a list of shame. A good position on the Peace Index is something to strive for then.
Hey, where are you going to? Vilnius? And what are you gonna do there?
Giedre,
Interesting post. Violence—war for instance, is a big business. Classic case: Iraq. It’s a mad scramble for resources. It’s happening here in the Philippines, too as I had mentioned in my previous post. http://development.thinkaboutit.eu/think3/post/mindanao_a_microcosm_of_the_philippines/
This is a trip for Polish journalists with aim to promote tourism in Lithuania. Many places, e.g. Vilnius, Kaunas, Klaipeda, Merkine, Druskinnikai, Bristonas, Palanga - most of them I haven’t seen before. Cool.
Thank you Iris! Violence is indeed a big business. I read your article when you uploaded it in April. Strong, as always.
Robert, that’s great! Seeing all these names makes me a little bit homesick
When in Klaipeda, I suggest you ask them to bring you to Kursiu Nerija, the Curonian Spit. It’s a beautiful place, really.