Not all is bad news in current demographic trends. In fact, there is a great chance to use these trends to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Today many of the developing countries enter a very important period of demographic development. It is usually called a “window of opportunity”, or the “demographic bonus”. But what does this mean?

Window of Opportunity Explained

In a nutshell, the reduction of fertility and the extension of life spans lead to more people in the working age group (16-64). Per capita income grows more rapidly when the number of working-age adults is growing faster than the number of children. Poverty is reduced. This is the so-called “window of opportunity”, allowing dynamic economic growth of the developing countries during their demographic transition. This is the period when child and total dependency fall down, but before old-age dependency sets in.

The trend is not uniform. The speed with which the windows of opportunity will come and go, and their duration, varies enormously from country to country. Usually this phase lasts 40 or 30 years. In India for instance this bonus is available between 1970 and 2015. For most of the Less Developed Countries this period will last until 2020 at the latest, so there’s not much time left. For the Least Developed Countries the window of opportunity spans from 2000 to 2050.

Another important difference occurs among regions in developing countries. In Brazil and China the differences between regions are vast. In result young workers move from areas of underdevelopment to more developed zones.

The Challenges and Threats

The fact that fertility rates fall and working age groups are larger does not guarantee development, though. There are substantial challenges ahead if we want to use that potential.

First of all, high adult mortality among working age people is injurious to the attainment of MDGs because they are the productive element of society.  HIV/AIDS is a major contributing factor for adult mortality in many developing countries.  In fact HIV/AIDS prevalence leads to radically different age patterns of mortality, with high rates among younger adults.  This trend is especially worrying in sub-Saharan Africa, where up to 20% of the population is infected with HIV.

Armed conflicts also play a role. Such conflicts with substantial number of victims occurred in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Algeria, Mozambique, Afghanistan, Angola, Iraq, Myanmar, etc. Along with negative impacts on the demographic transition, these conflicts have also exacerbated economic pressures and have diminished existing infrastructure.

The Road Ahead and How to Get There

In order to use the window of opportunity, development programs must be designed on national and regional level, taking into account the demographic situation and the benefits it brings. The critical policy areas include:

• public health,
• family planning,
• education,
• economic policies that promote labor-market flexibility,
• openness to trade,
• and savings.

These measures sound all too familiar, and are covered in the posts of many fellow bloggers in Think 3: Developing World. The important message is that the benefits of such development programs will only materialize if they are implemented starting about NOW, since the opportunities will decrease substantially after 2020 and beyond.

More, comprehensive development programs are needed. I realize that such an effort depends on good governance on the ground, but I am afraid that current patchwork development approaches do not contribute substantially to the exploitation of the demographic bonus.

I will elaborate further on useful and game-changing strategies for development in the next posts, outside the Population Series. I will, however, also deal with the possible costs of failure to act – including rising unemployment, crumbling resources, and social unrest.