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Justin Mottershead
recent graduate (Manchester, United Kingdom)

I started blogging around a year ago although have only taken it (slightly) seriously for the past few months. I usually blog about football so am hoping to use this platfrom as an ideal opportunity to branch out. Being something of a luddite, you may sense there is a lack of media in some of my posts, but slowly and surely I am getting better, and by the end of this competition you may even see links and videos on my blog!

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UK election debate part 2- can we trust the polls?

Published 22nd April 2010 - 0 comments - 2879 views -

When the dust settled on the second UK election leader's debate, there was no unanimous congratulations to Nick Clegg on a resounding triumph. With all the expectation on the Liberal Democrat leader to repeat his stellar performance from last week. With all the hype I half-expected the other candidates to get on their knees and bow shouting:  "were not worthy, we're not worthy" to Clegg before the debates began. You had the feeling that he may start wandering round the audience touching ill or disabled people curing them, and possibly turning their water into wine, such has been the outpouring of adulation towards him.

This time round the outcome was a little more uncertain than last week. Last week the entire British nation seemed to succumb to Clegg-mania as the Liberal Democrat leader went from almost unkown by the majority of voters to universally admired in a mere 90 minutes.

In football there's a term called 'second season syndrome' where a team that has a surprisingly successful season, then follows it with a lacklustre one. The same term can be applied to movies, songs, or any form of surprising success really. In Clegg's case it can be attached to the debates, last week he benefitted from being the surprise package, tonight he was the 'one to watch' with most of the expectations on him to deliver another dominant showing.

The debates centred around foreign affairs with Europe and nuclear arms playing a huge part. Last week Gordon Brown had been criticised for stating repeatedly: "I agree with Nick"- to which Clegg often shook his head. This time Brown was willing to take on Clegg a bit more forcefully, particularly over the trident nuclear detterrent, which the Lib Dem leader wants to scrap. Brown told Clegg to: "Get real," over the idea of getting rid of Britain's nuclear weapons when other non-friendly nations have them. David Cameron also turned on Clegg on the nuclear issue.

David Cameron clashed with Brown over the subject of eye-tests for pensioners, showing anger towards Brown for what he saw as scare-mongering by Labour via leaflets over Tory policy. Overall, there was the usual squabling, occasional point scoring, some small moments of honest admissions and a rather lazy and predictable Obama reference from Clegg.

All three leaders tried to convince the public that a hung parliament is not the answer unless they have to of course in which case it is the answer but obviously they'd rather not have to work with each other- it was all a juggling act, if said act is conducted by a drunken clown on a unicycle with a flat tyre.

The real comedy highlight for me came when David Cameron told an 84-year old audience member that by 2016 the retirement age for men would be increased by a year which instantly became a twitter sensation. "David Cameron just told an 84 year old woman he was going to do something by 2016."

By the end of the debate, there was no real, runaway winner the same way there had been last week. The debates were on SKY News, which is owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation- which also owns The Sun newspaper, which has switched its allegiance from Labour to the Tories.

The Guardian had Clegg winning with 60% compared to Brown's 27% and Cameron's 12%

Immediately following the debates, Sky News showed the results of a YouGov/The Sun  poll which had Cameron winning by a rather surprising 36% compared with Clegg's 32% and Brown's 29%.

Then came other poll results- although obviously not on Sky- Channel 4 News had Clegg winning by a mammoth 52% compared with Brown's 31% and Cameron's 17%, a difference for the Tory leader of 19% compared with the YouGov/The Sun poll.

The ComRes poll ahd Clegg the winner by 33% compared to a joint score of 30% for the 'other two' - which is how Brown and Cameron have been treated by many these past seve days-  how the tables have turned.

There was more confusion to come as The Guardian gave the debate to Clegg with a massive 60.3 % compared with Brown's 27.1% and 12.6% for Cameron.

So why are all these polls so different? Well firstly indulge me in a little conspiracy theorising regarding the YouGov/TheSun poll. The YouGov CEO is a Tory candidate for Stratford-Upon-Avon, so like Iago in Stratford-Upon-Avon's most famous son's Othello, he could have manipulated certain people- into choosing Tory sympathisers to participate in the poll- rather than killing their lovers in jealous rages. Also The Sun has backed Cameron - in a blaze of 'where gonna win it again' publicity. So that's why I am not shocked to see that poll claiming Cameron a massive winner.

 

Then there's The Guardian's poll, that newspaper is the last true bastion of liberal sentiment in the British national press, so the fact its reader's favour Clegg with Cameron a distant third is about as surprising as a spin doctor saying his candidate 'performed well.'

As for the ComRes poll, well call me 'a mentalist but it seems from what I saw of the debate to be the most like how I would have scored it, although I had Brown ahead of Cameron, the ComRes poll is made up of MP's 'representative of all political groups' according to their literature.

While these polls are all very confusing and in some cases obviously biased, one thing is for sure, the final debate next week will have pollsters, twitterers, spin doctors and expert panels, going into overdrive, but the only poll that really matters is the one on May the 7th.

 



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